He believes that the new Russian reinforcements, however ill-trained and ill-equipped, and the onset of an early winter will pause the Ukrainian campaign and save the Russians, for the moment. People think its going to be over quickly, but, unfortunately, war doesnt work like that, he said. But he also believes that Ukraine will resume its offensive in the spring, at which point the same dynamic and the same dangers will be back in play. For a war to end, Goemans said, the minimum demands of at least one of the sides must change. This is the first rule of war termination. And we have not yet reached a point where war aims have changed enough for a peace deal to be possible.

• Germany and France have announced more support through air missile systems andAMX-10 RC light armoured vehicles, while the UStipped in another $US3.75 billion in new military assistance last month.
• Although for a while Prigozhin carried on with his affairs in Russia as if nothing untoward had happened, and even at one point met with his old chum Putin again, it was hard to believe that he would survive such a challenge and so it proved.
• The US and its allies were quick to provide aid that has been vital to Ukraines ability to defend itself.

But the uncertainty surrounding President Putin and his regime, almost a year and a half into a disastrous war and after the Wagner drama, might feed the anxiety of those Nato countries who would prefer the war to end around the negotiating table, not on the battlefield. When I asked the official who wanted to remain anonymous about recent tactical gains in the east, including a handful of small villages, he lifted his hand with his finger and thumb pinching the air perhaps half an inch apart. Another senior official, who spoke on condition he was not named, went further, suggesting that President Putin would be forced to dismiss his Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov, perhaps as a response to another military setback. In his office, Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, told the BBC that "Prigozhin is not the most senior. They might become the new political elite". The Ukrainians have fought a clever media war, and they are remarkably consistent in the messages that they deliver to their own people and their Western allies, as well as their enemies in Moscow. It is vital to remember that anything Ukrainians, especially the ones running the country, say about their Russian enemies comes in the heat of a fight that they see, correctly, as a struggle for national survival.

Regime Change in Russia?

Germany and France have announced more support through air missile systems andAMX-10 RC light armoured vehicles, while the UStipped in another $US3.75 billion in new military assistance last month. "The current rate of Ukraine's ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defence industries under strain,"NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned this month. Analysts say its forces also require more troops and would need to withstand an expectedRussian onslaught in spring, between March and May. Ukraine's resistance and willingness to fight remains strong,but if there is a Russian offensive on the horizon as some are predicting their fortitude will once again be put to the test. While the West believes it will be up to Ukraine to decide its future, there is no denyingthe outcome of the war will have far-reaching consequences for Europe and the rest of the world.