He is a Senior Research Fellow of the Foreign Policy Centre in London and Co-Coordinator of the OSCE Network of Think Tanks and Academic Institutions. Its most recent death count was in March, when it said 1,351 Russian soldiers had died since the invasion began. Western shipments of weaponry are being used heavily by Ukrainian forces. When launching the invasion in February, President Vladimir Putin said his goal was to "demilitarise Ukraine". The Kremlin said its operations would continue "until all the tasks originally set" had been achieved. The cities of Izyum and Kupiansk, which Ukraine says were retaken on 10 September, were both key supply hubs for the Russian forces.

• "The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General Antnio Guterres.
• It has a homegrown war machine and enormous reserves of manpower and resources, and Morris believes there is a good chance Russia can sustain the conflict for years to come.
• A late March NPR/Ipsos poll found that most Americans think Biden has not done a good job of handling the war in Ukraine.
• NATO does not want a full-scale war in Europe, and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows he would lose a conflict with a 30-member military alliance led by the Americans.

I would love to think the kinetic phase could end in 2023, but I suspect we could be looking at another three years with this scale of fighting, Roberts said. At the same time, election season in the United States Ukraines most important backer stands to spur arguments that a war in Europe of unknown duration is a costly nuisance for America. That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West. It's become clear that the counteroffensive won't produce quick results and that success however that might be measured in terms of retaking Russian-occupied territory is not guaranteed. Ukraine will do all it can to keep pressure on the Russians there to make it untenable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, the handful of air force bases there and their logistics base at Dzankoy.

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It has also said it will continue to target these areas with military strikes. There is also a Ukrainian counter-attack around the Kherson region in the south of the country. Meanwhile, Indian thinktank Observer Research Foundation's Russia expert, Nandan Unnikrishnan, said India was unlikely to sign "any major military deal" with Russia because it would cross a red line with the US. Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency. If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says.

• US President Joe Biden said Mr Putin had "chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering".
• This major war in Europe has been so great a shock that the EU will continue to build up its military power no matter how the fighting in Ukraine ends.
• The military course of this war in 2024 will be determined in Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang more than in Avdiivka, Tokmak, Kramatorsk or any of the devastated battlefields along the frontlines.
• At an appropriate point next year, Ukraine would declare a pause in offensive military operations and shift its primary focus to defending and rebuilding liberated areas while integrating with Western institutions.
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw the return of major war to the European continent.
• European countries have largely outsourced much of their military capacity and thinking on strategy and security to the States through NATO.

Similar attacks continued for several days and show no sign of abating in the new year. This prompted the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to warn that Russia was probably planning a prolonged air campaign aimed at exhausting Ukraine. The recent arms donations Kyiv still wants fighter aircraft and long-range tactical missiles are predicated on the assumption theyll force Moscow to end its invasion and begin negotiations because military costs are too high.

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"The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says. "The document referred to in the Financial Times article is a background note written by the secretariat of the council under its own responsibility which describes the current status of the Hungarian economy," the statement by the senior EU official said. That could end up looking something like the Korean peninsula, with a demilitarised zone between Ukrainian and Russian-controlled territory, or a grinding perpetual conflict that flares up and down, eventually resulting in an uneasy truce. But to analysts, like Morris, the prospect of Putin being removed is extremely unlikely and the chances that whoever replaces him will be less hawkish are even more remote. There isnt really any source of alternative power to coalesce around while Putin is healthy and alive, said Morris. The Russian ruling elite saw the Soviet Unions collapse merely as a reconfiguration in which former Soviet countries would continue to be together in some way, Popova told Al Jazeera, whereas Ukraine saw it as an opportunity to be fully independent.