How does the Russian invasion of Ukraine affect the UK economy? Office for Budget Responsibility

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This explainer looks at the direct trade links that do exist between the UK and Russia, and two key areas of the UK economy most likely to be exposed.

This explainer looks at the direct trade links that do exist between the UK and Russia, and two key areas of the UK economy most likely to be exposed. Prior to Russia's invasion, the Foreign Office had seen a decline in its Russia expertise - despite the government having described the country as "the most acute threat to our security" in the Integrated Review. The muted response to Russias invasion of the Crimea in 2014 had already shown that, as a former UK ambassador to Moscow and Washington put it, there was a problem in the Foreign Office; the old Cold War cadre of people just wasnt there. The new Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is tasked with plotting the UKs course out of the crisis.


  • This is most likely to affect the two major pipelines that cross Ukraine to bring Russian gas to Europe.[17] An event such as this would imply localised disruption to the flow of Russian gas via Ukraine.
  • This could result in a $25bn write-off and a large reduction in its global fuel production.
  • The Russian president has intensified a crackdown on opposition since the start of his invasion of Ukraine, and this has ramped up further as the elections have approached.
  • A year after Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, five IfG experts examine the impact of the war on the UK.
  • Many experts say it is too soon to tell how Russia's invasion will affect its participation in climate diplomacy and international action, such as at the next yearly United Nations climate talks, COP27, in Egypt in November.
  • The combination of these is likely to substantially reduce Russias trade volumes, particularly imports.

The NFU is asking the government to release an additional 10,000 visas under the Seasonal Workers Scheme, in addition to the 30,000 already granted. The cost of producing a chicken was 50% higher than it was a year ago but farmers were absorbing much of these costs, she said. NFU president Minette Batters told the BBC that the rising cost of producing fruit, vegetables and meat could cause farmers to make less at a time when the nation needs more.


Opposition to Russia's demands


"Renewables have a distinct security of supply advantage in that they don't require refuelling," explains environment expert Antony Froggatt. She also predicts a rapid short term boost to energy efficiency efforts across Europe, which would reduce energy demand. With war raging in Ukraine, many fear ministers will be distracted from climate action. Many companies are now making the decision to leave Russia, due to the difficulties inherent in operating under sanctions, deep uncertainty about Russias economic future, and reputational concerns.


  • The revival of NATOs purpose and a unified western response have been a necessary if painful reminder of where UK interests truly lie.
  • The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on our forecast for the UK economy comes primarily via the impact of higher energy prices on inflation, real incomes, consumption and imports.
  • "We live in an unstable world. If rich counties fail to support vulnerable countries in tackling climate impacts and in their clean energy transition, it will only fuel a spiral of instability."
  • However, as indicated above, if financial sanctions are extended such that they disrupt energy trade, this could lead to more profound economic impacts for the UK and other European countries.
  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine means significant uncertainty for the UK economy, the chancellor has warned.

However, Russias invasion of Ukraine and sanctions imposed as a response by the UK and its allies could still have a significant impact on the UK economy. But one industry body warned the UK faced a higher risk of recession as the impact of the Ukraine conflict would add to the sharp rise in living costs. While climate change is often deemed a "threat multiplier", it is clear from the last week "that fossil fuels are a threat multiplier too", she said.


UK to be major economy worst hit by Ukraine war, says OECD


Even with prices falling faster than expected, next winter still looks challenging and energy is likely to remain front and centre of the political agenda well beyond that. In the meantime, individual countries including the UK are supplying Kyiv with money and weapons and helping to train its armed forces. British diplomats said Mr. Cameron and other senior officials had made it a priority to reach out to Republicans who were hostile to further aid.


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