And Russia has a seemingly endless supply of young men whose lives it is willing to waste in this war. Defense experts say it's unlikely the counteroffensive will see any breakthroughs this year. But they note it's crucial for Ukraine to be able to show at least some gains in order to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 and perhaps beyond.

• The public is bearing the costs of war in the form of inflation, economic decline and battlefield deaths.
• In a June articleby Sergei Karaganov, an established ultra-nationalist analyst, which I discussed in October, most interest was in his urging Putin to take more nuclear risks (advice rejected by Putin).
• With Western hesitancy bolstering Russia, and in the absence of either a coup or a health-related issue leading to Putin's demise, the only foreseeable outcome will be a negotiated settlement that for now both sides continue to refuse.

At the same time, election season in the United States Ukraines most important backer stands to spur arguments that a war in Europe of unknown duration is a costly nuisance for America. WASHINGTON and ROME Germanys promise early this year to send tanks to Ukraine marked the countrys latest concession and provided a cap to the gradual escalation in the kind of equipment allies were supplying. Russia now knows that they miscalculated the willingness of the Ukrainian people, but to what extent is still unknown. The problem is that it is difficult for Ukraine to demonstrate the extent of its willingness to bear costs, and Russia is likely to mistrust any attempts to communicate this, anticipating that Ukraine will overstate in order to obtain a more favourable agreement.

Win, lose, stalemate or a shock: how might the Ukraine war end?

Given whats at stake not just the survival of Ukraine but of the whole international order that would be risky. It would make success dependent on events we cannot predict or control, including on the outcome of elections in Western countries, including the United States. And while we have no right to tell Ukrainians to stop fighting before their country is whole, we also have no right to expect them to keep fighting at any cost. The first and most obvious way for Ukraine to win would be for its armed forces to take back all the territory Russia has unlawfully seized since its first invasion in 2014
including Crimea.

The worry is that even this is overly optimistic, although it is the strategy that western leader appears to be selling to their publics. There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraines early successes in counterattacking last year, said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank. Joe Gould was the senior Pentagon reporter for Defense News, covering the intersection of national security policy, politics and the defense industry. While defense spending in the United States and Europe is trending upward, in large part because of Russias attack, industrial capacity to crank out weapons and ammunition has emerged as a bottleneck.

On the offensive this spring

So my self-assessment question is not whether my predictions are right, because I made few that were firm, but whether much happened that would surprise a regular reader of these posts. The invasion plan broadly consists of a three-pronged line of attack, from the north, east and south, using artillery and missile strikes to soften resistance before following up with infantry and tanks. Putin would ideally like to see the Zelensky government quickly capitulate and surrender, to be replaced by a Moscow-leaning puppet government. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia. America, Europe and Ukraine have to keep adjusting their positions according to what each thinks the other will accept. The Ukrainians are negotiating with their Western partners as much as, and probably more than, theyre negotiating with the Russians, says Olga Oliker of the International Crisis Group, a think-tank.

• "I think the countdown has started," said Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's closest adviser.
• As of this writing, the superforecasters had assigned a roughly 70 percent probability to the scenario of Russia and Ukraine not agreeing to end the conflict before October 1, 2024, the furthest-out date among the multiple-choice options presented.
• There are more indiscriminate artillery and rocket strikes across Ukraine.
• When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and the rapidly improving logistical situation for Ukraine, I see no other outcome but a Russian defeat.
• Those who seek to invade another country anywhere across the great Eurasian steppes are condemned eventually to winter in it.

Army captain who last year became a special adviser to Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander of the Ukrainian military. Either side may act boldly if it winds up on the ropes and needs an exit strategy. Ukraine, Jensen suggested, might try a spectacular special operation to assassinate a Kremlin official, or Russia could decide to use or simply test nuclear weapons.

While the bipartisan majority of lawmakers support arming Kyiv, 57 Republicans voted against a $40 billion emergency aid supplemental in May. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., made several concessions to those Ukraine aid skeptics to secure the votes to win his protracted speakership battle. Smith indicated he disagrees with the Biden administrations decision not to send long-range missiles, noting every Ukrainian official assured him they would not use them to attack Russia. The United States, as Ukraines most important military supporter, remains the center of gravity when it comes to an eventual outcome for the conflict. American leadership has so far been largely united in their support for Kyiv. And the near-total control of information by the government is making dissent difficult.